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So Bali has come and gone with some hailing it a break-through and others a huge disappointment. UCT scientist Prof Harald Winkler describes the progress made there as tectonic – slow but large. I hope he is right, but cannot help to agree with John Doerr at the 2007 TED conference when, after mentioning some of the programs and policies proposed in the US, he said, “and who would have thought that all that is not enough”.

What is enough?
If one looks at the latest IPCC 4th Assessment Report you see that in order to stay below atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 450 parts per million, global emissions will have to be reduced by between 50% - 85% of 2000 levels by 2050. The 450ppm scenario is the best case discussed in the report and entails a temperature increase of 2,0°C – 2,4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050 (note that we are already 0,7°C above pre-industrial levels so it means a further increase of 1,3°C – 1,7°C). The 20% emission reduction that is often mentioned by policy makers imply a 2,8°C – 3,2°C increase above pre-industrial levels. Another 70% increase in CO2 emissions, as we saw over the last 40 years, will lead to temperature increases of 4,0°C – 4,9°C.
If we don’t commit ourselves to the 450ppm concentration target, we should prepare for a very different world in terms of ecological diversity, where we live and what we grow. I believe it is fair to say aiming for a target of higher than 450ppm is ‘not enough’.

But, what does a commitment to 450ppm stabilisation mean? Or in other words, what does 50%- 85% CO2 emission reductions by 2050 mean for us here in South Africa?
The latest global emissions from fossil fuels was 23,751 million metric tons of CO2  which, with a global population of 6,635 billion people, gives emissions of 3,58 metric tons per capita per year.
If we assume the global population will by 2050 have grown to 8 billion (which is definitely a fairly conservative measure) and we go for the lower range of the 450ppm scenario, a 50% reduction, then by 2050 per capita emissions should be 1,484 metric tons.
South Africa currently produces about 383 million tons of CO2 and given our population of 48 million that equates to 7,979 metric tons per capita. To reach the 1,484 t target, South Africans will thus have to decrease their CO2 emissions by 81,4%. For countries like the USA and UK their required reductions are greater than 95%.

What we thus see is that we can’t merely think in terms of emission reductions and carbon sequestrations here and there. We will have to start thinking of a zero-carbon society. And as I definitely don’t get excited about returning to a pre-modern society, what we will have to think about is a fully modern, zero-carbon society. Only once we acknowledge the real extent of our challenge, can we effectively work towards solutions.

In the 1960’s John F Kennedy galvanised the US population with the goal of getting a man to the moon and back by the end of the decade. Having a fully modern, zero-carbon society by 2050, should be our generation’s animating vision.

*This blog was inspired by a recent blog by George Monbiot entitled, ‘What is progress’